Uzbek Gasoline Prices Respond to Global Oil Market

The price of gasoline in Uzbekistan is influenced by changes in the global oil market. An analysis by the Institute of Macroeconomic and Territorial Studies for the period from January 2022 to November 2023 revealed that fluctuations in world oil prices impact gasoline prices in Uzbekistan, with a one-month delay.

For instance, a 39.2% rise in world oil prices from January to June 2022 resulted in a 22.4% increase in the average wholesale gasoline price on the Republican Commodity Exchange. Conversely, a 33.2% decline in global oil prices from July to December 2022 led to a 21.3% drop in wholesale gasoline prices.

During January to May 2023, stabilized oil prices and a zero-excise tax on AI-80 gasoline from December 10, 2022, contributed to a wholesale gasoline price range of 4,848 to 5,060 soums. However, from June to November 2023, despite an 11% increase in the average world oil price (from $73 to $81 per barrel), the average wholesale gasoline price rose by 10.2%, reaching 5,860 soums.

Econometric analysis showed a sensitivity between the average wholesale gasoline price, including high-demand AI-80 and AI-92, and world oil prices. A 1% increase in global oil prices was associated with a one-month delay in the average wholesale gasoline price. AI-80 gasoline was expected to rise by 0.32%, and AI-92 by 0.54%.

Retail gasoline prices in Tashkent mirrored wholesale price dynamics. A 1% increase in wholesale prices on the Republican Commodity Exchange corresponded to a 0.29% increase in Tashkent's retail prices. Despite a November decrease in the world oil price to $81.35 per barrel (an 8.7% drop from October), AI-80 gasoline in Tashkent saw a 2.3% increase in December (7611 soums) compared to November (7440 soums). This was attributed to heightened demand for AI-80 gasoline due to restrictions on methane gas supply during cold weather in mid-December.

Notably, the interconnectedness between global oil prices and gasoline prices in Uzbekistan, with a one-month lag, is significant due to a portion of the country's oil and gasoline demand being met through imports.