Uzbekistan's birth rate to decline in 2024

Since the beginning of the year, Uzbekistan has registered about 700,000 births, a decrease of 3.2% compared to the same period last year. In the first three months of 2024, the decline was 4.3%. Question arises at this point: is this a one-time decline or the start of long-term demographic issues?

Economist Mirkomil Kholboyev views the decrease in births as a characteristic of “seasonality”. He notes that the main reason for the current decline is a significant drop in birth rates between 1992 and 2001, which saw nearly a 30% decrease. In the early years of independence, over 700,000 children were born, but by the start of the new century, that number fell to 500,000.

People born during the early independence period are now having children, while those born during the previous decline are significantly affecting the current birth numbers. This trend could lead to lower natural fertility. For instance, the correlation between the current fertility rate and the rate 27 years ago is about 0.46. This indicates that today's birth rates are heavily influenced by the number of births from 27 years ago.

The number of marriages has also been declining recently. Marriages decreased by 2.8% in the first nine months of 2024, 4.3% in 2023, and 2.8% in 2022. This decline can be attributed to a slight increase in the age of marriage and the long-term decrease in birth rates since independence.

Additionally, people may be choosing to have fewer children. However, the fertility rate per mother has been rising, from 2.4 in 2017 to 3.3 in 2022, indicating a decision to have more children.

Overall, this year’s decline in births can be explained by the smaller number of people of childbearing age compared to previous generations. Thus, this year's decrease does not signify serious demographic problems; it is simply “seasonal”.